Monday, 14 June 2010

Africa Aviation Outlook: Cooperation, liberalisation and protectionism

As African governments sought a path to successful locally-based airline operations, some attempted to gain the benefits of scale and coverage by forming joint airlines. With a good deal of support from European governments and flag carriers, two early examples of airlines jointly representing the interests of neighbouring countries shared resources, costs and – hopefully - the profits.
These examples of regional cooperation were:
1) Air Afrique, based in francophone West Africa (covering Benin, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Upper Volta (today’s Burkina Faso) and Senegal.); and
2) East African Airways, in ex-British administered countries (Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania) in the east of the continent.
From its founding in 1961, Air Afrique, originally with financial and operational support from France, struggled on until it eventually folded in 2001, reduced to a fleet of only three aircraft and with massive debts.
East African Airways had even earlier beginnings, but was dissolved in 1977, following which each of the three partner countries then set up their own flag carriers.
Another, more commercially-originated grouping was established by South African Airways in 1994, with a joint venture airline, Alliance, an international partnership between SAA, Air Tanzania and Uganda Airlines. However, Kenya Airways proved too competitive for the grouping and it ceased operations. Then there are the cross-border equity/operating investments, such as the now defunct Virgin Nigeria, as well as the more successful KLM-Kenya Airways JV.
In north Africa, a more limited form of alliance, known as the Arabesk Network Coordination Project was formulated in 2005 under the aegis of the Arab Air Carriers Organisation. Arabesk, along with several Arab carriers, includes EgyptAir and Tunisair and was designed to increase the mutual power of its members, coordinating schedules and consolidating joint fuel purchasing.
Individual airlines in countries with domestic markets, stronger economies and longer experience have however been more successful, with South African Airways, EgyptAir, Air Algerie, Royal Air Maroc and Ethiopian Airlines being conspicuous examples of long-term operational survival – often with some help from European airlines and, frequently their own governments. Kenya Airways too has staked a strong reputation since its post-EAA inauguration and there are newer examples which may also prosper, as liberalisation seeps through and private airlines are established.

Many African nations have concluded Open Skies agreements with the US – but not with each other

Zambia was the most recent African nation to conclude a liberal “open skiesbilateral air services agreement with the US, but over the past decade, the list has become impressive, as the US gathers supporters to its liberalisation crusade.
African nations with Open Skies agreements with the US
Tanzania
Provisional
11.3.99
Namibia
C&R
2.4.00
Burkina Faso
In force
2.9.00
Ghana
In force
3.16.00
Gambia
In force
5.2.00
Nigeria
Provisional
8.26.00
Morocco
In force
5.2.00
Rwanda
N/A
10.11.00
Benin
N/A
11.28.00
Senegal
C&R
12.15.00
Uganda
In force
10.27.09
Cape Verde
In force
6.21.09
Madagascar
Provisional
3.10.04
Gabon
In force
5.26.04
Maldives
In force
5.5.05
Ethiopia
Provisional
5.17.05
Mali
In force
10.17.05
Cameroon
In force
2.16.00
Chad
Provisional
5.31.06
Liberia
In force
2.15.07
Kenya
C&R
5.30.08
Zambia
In force
16.3.10
However, many of these agreements are still not fully effective, if at all. Nor, in most cases will there ever be direct services to the US from these countries.
However, depending on their precise terms, the agreements facilitate indirect services, a feature that becomes increasingly important (and sometimes surprising to the non-US party) as alliances and codeshare partners are able to exploit the terms more effectively.[1]
The flexibility and usefulness of these agreements in turn often necessitates liberal access terms in the understandings with third countries within the region, if through services are to incorporate fifth freedom operations. These rarely exist, despite the obvious advantages of liberalisation among often excessively jealous neighbours.
The bottom line is that, despite the unwillingness of African nations among themselves to liberalise, these open skies agreements may offer some impetus to reforming local regulation. As the clamour for new sources of energy continues unabated, the prospect increases that foreign airlines will leverage every opportunity to use the agreements to establish new access, either directly or through a combination of bilateral agreements and alliance relationships.
As a minimum, they stand as symbols of what might have been. They also represent a very strong hint to African states that multilateral – or at least bilateral – liberalisation among themselves is the only serious way to proceed.
This is an extract from an article, available for CAPA Members, or by individual purchase, which includes the following sections and analysis:
  • 2. The dilemma: protectionism or liberalisation – or both?
  • 3. Better to look for international partnerships and liberalise intra-regionally
  • Conclusion: In the end the market will have its way; but infrastructure will be found wanting
Source: CAPA

Thursday, 10 June 2010

Greater flexibility required to adjust to unfavourable economic conditions

The EUROCONTROL Performance Review Commission (PRC) has issued its Performance Review Report for the year 2009, which was marked by an unprecedented traffic downturn. It presents an assessment of the performance of European Air Navigation Services (ANS) under the Key Performance Areas of Safety, Punctuality & Predictability, Capacity & Delays, Flight Efficiency, Environmental impact, and Cost-Effectiveness.

The report highlights that:

„X While there is a continuous increase in the reporting of incidents in many States, the number of reporting States remains relatively low and has not increased in the last five years.

„X Not all the States have taken the necessary measures to achieve a fully non-punitive reporting system and ¡§just culture¡¨ should be implemented where this is not already the case.

„X States and ANSPs should use automatic detection and reporting tools so as to further improve the transparency of ANS safety.

„X Increases in en-route delays over the period 2003-2008 nearly cancelled out the benefits of improvements in cost-effectiveness, hence the need for a balanced approach to performance.

„X Issues leading to high delays in the top 30 delay generating sectors have to be resolved urgently.

„X Given the severe economic downturn, there is a need to effectively implement the planned cost containment measures so that they materialise into genuine cost-savings for airspace users and contribute to improving the total economic cost of ANS.

„X The design and use of airspace for both civil and military needs has to be further improved and a more effective use of airspace released to civil operations has to be made.

„X Airport stakeholders should constructively engage in the PRC-led process of development of indicators and targets addressing operational performance at and around airports and in the building of a comprehensive and reliable database that can adequately support it.

The economic downturn has affected the aviation community throughout 2009 with unprecedented severity, requiring greater flexibility on air navigation service providers and EUROCONTROL to adjust to new unfavourable economic conditions. In this context, the pressure to genuinely improve costeffectiveness is high on the agenda of airspace users¡¦ expectations¡¨, says John Arscott, Chairman of the PRC.

The full report is available here: www.eurocontrol.int/prc 

Source:  Air Transport News

Emirates declares war on the world’s flag carriers with order for 32 more A380s


If anyone was wondering where Emirates was planning to place its 58 A380s, it was obviously not CEO, Tim Clark. Yesterday at the Berlin Airshow the astonishing airline made another firm orders for 32 of the mega-jumbo. This takes to 90 the number of A380s to Emirates' account. The vast size of the order, the largest in aviation history, is dramatic in its direct challenge to the old airline industry. But it also carries with it equally massive indirect implications.
The order for the additional aircraft has a list price of $US 11.5 billion (AED 42.2).  The agreement was signed today during a ceremony at the Berlin Air Show by His Highness (H.H.) Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates Airline and Group and Tom Enders, Airbus President and CEO which was witnessed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other dignitaries.
Seated at the table making today’s announcement: His Highness (H.H.) Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, Chairman and Chief Executive, Emirates Airline and Group (left) with Tom Enders, President and CEO, Airbus (right). Looking on in the back row, left to right: John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer –Customers, Airbus; Tim Clark, President, Emirates Airline; Angela Merkel, German Chancellor; Rainer Brüderle, Federal Minister of Economics and Technology; Dr. Peter Ramsauer, Minister of Transport; Louis Gallois, Chief Executive Officer, Airbus.
“This latest order, adding to 58 A380s previously ordered, affirms Emirates’ strategy to become a world leading carrier and to further establish Dubai as a central gateway to worldwide air travel.  The A380 is our flagship in terms of passenger comfort, innovation, operating and environmental efficiency and revenue generation,” said H.H. Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al- Maktoum. “Our latest commitment signals Emirates’ confidence in the growth to come in a thriving aviation sector as we build our fleet for tomorrow,” he added.
“Emirates supported the development of the A380 from the earliest days, a project employing tens of thousands of Europe’s best people and today’s increased order, is the best endorsement I can imagine. On behalf of all of us at Airbus, we thank Emirates for their support. The A380 is indeed a remarkable eco-efficient aircraft, a profit generator for airlines and a great flying experience for passengers,” said Tom Enders.
Emirates, the second largest airline in the world in available seat kilometres, is on track to become one of the largest airlines in the world.  In addition to the orders placed today, Emirates has 48 Airbus 380s, 70 Airbus 350s,  18 Boeing 777-300s and 7 Boeing air freighters on order totaling 143 wide-body aircraft worth more than $US 48 billion. In a year where the aviation industry was rocked by the economic downturn, Emirates Airline recently reported its 22nd  year of profit, up 416 percent to close at US$ 964 million (AED 3.5 billion) over its 2008-09 profits of US$ 187 million (AED 686 million). From the delivery of its first A380 in July 2008, to receiving it 10th A380 on 7th June 2010 from the Airbus plant in Hamburg, Emirates is now serving eight international destinations with the super-jumbo aircraft including London Heathrow, Toronto, Paris, Jeddah, Bangkok, Seoul, Sydney and Auckland. The airline will start A380 services to Beijing from 1st August, Manchester from 1st September and will return service to New York’s John F. Kennedy (JFK) airport on 1st October.  Emirates’ looks forward to expanding the list of destinations at more than 100 airports around the world as A380s become ready.


Sources: CAPA, Emirates.com


Outlook for global airline alliances in Africa

As global alliances gather momentum, radiating from their core partners in Europe and North America, each region is experiencing the influence that the groupings can bring. Africa is no exception, but the lack of fully viable locally based carriers offers something of a challenge in finding partners to expand beyond the small number already accounted for.
Nonetheless, the role of global alliances seems sure to increase competition on the African continent. But whether this will improve on the current north-south route bias is doubtful; in fact, the opposite is possibly the likely outcome.
When EgyptAir joined Star Alliance in 2008, Jan Albrecht, CEO of the Alliance, was bullish about Africa’s aviation future: “half of our members (are) flying to the African continent…The economic and business climate of Africa is getting the world’s attention.” He also believed the “Star Alliance is well positioned to serve the business interests of the continent by having EgyptAir in the north, South African Airways in the south, and nine other member airlines flying to Africa.”
It does look that way, as Star appears best established – numerically, at least, of any of the alliances. Both of continental Europe’s major airlines, Air France-KLM and Lufthansa, have extensive links to and from Europe in their own right. British Airways, a lead member of the third global alliance, also has its own network, albeit smaller than the other two.
Unaligned Emirates Airline is expanding its presence too, providing links from Europe and Asia. The UAE carrier has created a sufficient threat to Europe-Africa operations that Lufthansa last year felt the need to take legal action to prevent Emirates from price leading on Germany-South Africa routes.
As the underdeveloped African market grows, the competition among offshore airlines will only intensify, with increasing benefits for African consumers and for intercontinental trade flows.
Meanwhile, although Asian and European connections are well developed, American carrier direct links remain rare, with only SkyTeam’s Delta actually currently operating; the carrier flies between Atlanta and Accra, Lagos, Johannesburg and Cairo and from New York JFK to Accra, Cairo, Dakar and Lagos, with a codeshare on Royal Air Maroc’s metal to Casablanca. United is to commence its own Chicago-Accra service in Jun-2010 (and possibly extended to Lagos), currently codesharing on EgyptAir services between Cairo and JFK and on SAA’s between Chicago and JFK-Johannesburg. Meanwhile the bulk of the access, particularly to northern Africa, is over European gateways.
In the absence of a wide range of locally available partners, the core European airline services will persist strongly, with a large portion of long haul passengers connecting over Europe to access African points. But, as noted, Star Alliance has taken the initiative in capturing some of Africa’s more eligible partners, EgyptAir, Ethiopian Airlines and South African Airways, while the Dutch part of the SkyTeam leaders has an established relationship with east Africa’s Kenya Airways; this offers a useful complement to Air France’s longstanding links with the north African francophone airlines.
In terms of coverage, Sky Team, of the global groupings, would appear to have the most comprehensive airline partnerships in the continent. The following summarises many of those relationships for each alliance.

(1) SkyTeam: a powerful set of connections from Europe

Air France/KLM is thus particularly strong in Africa in its own right, thanks to a combination of the longstanding French colonial links and the substantial access that KLM has established to mostly English speaking nations. Delta has been on-again/off-again in its entry to Nairobi, although there are hopes of a connection, probably via the west coast of Africa, later in 2010.
The Air France-KLM coverage however enables the SkyTeam combination to dominate European access to the continent, from north to south and from east to west, with a total of 42 destinations across 33 African countries. Access has also been augmented by regional alliances established, for example, through KLM’s alliance an equity holding in Kenya Airways.
Air France-KLM’s African route network
Combined with the Kenya Airways network, the strength of the alliance in southern Africa is also greatly enhanced.
Kenya Airways’ African route network
Also, as noted below, Air Algerie is in the process of becoming a SkyTeam member, although it has not yet complied with the necessary criteria.
Royal Air Maroc has one foot in the alliance also, with close commercial links to both Air France and US SkyTeam’s Delta, and Tunisair also has had a long term relationship with Air France.
This is an extract from an article, available for CAPA Members, or by individual purchase, that includes the following sections/data:
  • (2) Star Alliance: greater partner presence on the continent


    • Lufthansa’s African route network
    • South African Airways’ African route network
    • EgyptAir’s African route network
    • Turkish Airlines’ African route network A galaxy of Stars
  • (3) oneworld: the most modest alliance player in Africa


    • British Airways’ African network, with Comair route network in southern Africa
    • Iberia’s African network
  • Potential alliance members: limited options remain


    • Key data for selected African airlines: Home country capacity, Fleet (current and orders) and Capacity share of African continental market
  • Royal Air Maroc prospects
  • Arik Air prospects
  • Tunisair prospects
  • Remaining options? Only Nigeria an obvious target
  • Conclusion: An uncertain impact from the alliances 
 Source: CAPA

Wednesday, 2 June 2010

RYANAIR’S FULL YEAR PROFIT RISES 204% TO €319M FARES FALL 13%


Ryanair today (June 1) announced full year Profits of €319m after tax, an increase of 204% over last years €105m profit. The airline also proposes to pay a one-off dividend of €500m (€0.34 per share) in October, subject to shareholder approval at its September AGM.

Annoucing those results, O'Reilly said:
“The principal highlights of the past year include:-
• Profits trebled to €319m.
• Traffic growth of 14% to 67m.
• 51 net new aircraft (y/e fleet 232xB737-800’s).
• 8 new bases Bari, Brindisi, Faro, Leeds, Oslo Rygge, Pescara, Porto, Trapani (total 42).   
• 284 new routes (total 940).
• Passenger service statistics further improved (No 1 on time major airline).
• A dividend of €500m proposed (€846m returned to shareholders over the past 3 years).
Results
We can be proud of delivering a 200% increase in profits and traffic growth during a global recession  when many of our competitors have announced losses or cutbacks, while more have gone bankrupt including, Bluewings (Ger), Globespan (UK), My Air (Italy), Segal Air and Sky Europe (Slovakia). Revenues rose 2% to €2,988m as air fares fell 13% while traffic grew 14% to 67m. Unit costs fell 19% due to lower fuel and rigorous cost control. Ancillary sales grew 11% to €664m slightly slower than traffic growth, and amounted to 22% of total revenues.   
Fuel costs declined 29% to €894m as oil prices fell from $104 to $62 pbl. We extended our hedging program to 90% for FY11 (at $730 per tonne), 50% of Q1 FY12 (at $750 per tonne) and 20% of Q2 FY12 (at $750 per tonne). Excluding fuel other unit costs fell by 3%.   
Capacity cuts by many European flag and non flag carriers caused traffic to fall at many major European airports. We are inundated with offers from large and small airports competing with lower costs and efficient facilities to win Ryanair’s growth. Our airport and handling unit costs fell by 9% despite steep increases at Dublin and Stansted. New routes and bases launched this year will ensure that despite a scandalous (up to) 40% increase in charges at Dublin airport, our airport and handling unit costs will decline again in FY11.    
The balance sheet has strengthened as cash has risen by €535m to €2.8bln. We took advantage of recent historically low rates to lock in many of our 2009/2010 deliveries at an all inclusive long term interest cost of under 4% pa. We are fully financed for the remaining 34 deliveries out to January 2011. 
Our long term dollar hedging strategy for capex, which extends to the end of 2011, means that we will be purchasing aircraft in 2010/2011 at exceptionally low euro prices with a €/$ exchange rate of 1.46, significantly better than current rates.
Current Issues.
As we predicted Ireland’s tourism industry collapsed in 2009. Traffic at Dublin fell by over 3m (-13%) in a year when Ryanair’s traffic grew by 8m. Traffic at Dublin in 2010 to date has fallen by a further 14%. Ireland’s damaging €10 tourist tax and the govt. imposed (up to) 40% cost increases at Dublin airport will lead to a second year of government inspired tourism collapses. The opening of the DAA’s €1.2bln T2 in November is unnecessary as capacity at T1 has reached 30m pa while Dublin’s traffic will fall to under 18m in 2010. The DAA should mothball T2 which will reduce their operating costs, slash their high fees, and the government must scrap this damaging €10 tourist tax if Ireland is to return to being a competitive destination and reverse this 2 year tourism collapse.   
The Icelandic volcanic ash “monitoring” led to repeated, unnecessary, closures of large swathes of European airspace over 18 days from the 15th of April. These closures have caused the cancellation of 9,400 Ryanair flights, and the loss of 1.5m passengers up to the 18th of May. The full cost of these cancellations will not be known for some time and will depend on the claims we receive under the unfair and disproportionate EU261 regulations. We estimate the cumulative exceptional cost of these unnecessary cancellations is approx. €50m and we will continue to up-date shareholders quarterly on the likely final outcome.  The recent revisions of the VAAC charts for guesstimating the position of non-existent volcanic ash “clouds” highlights the mismanagement of these eruptions by EU governments and regulatory agencies, who repeatedly and unnecessarily closed European air space.     
EU 261 is a manifestly unfair, disproportionate and discriminatory regulation which requires airlines to reimburse expenses of disrupted passengers even in force majeure cases. While volcanic ash airspace closures disrupted 1.5m Ryanair passengers over a period of 18 days we believe that airlines should not be exposed to such unlimited liability when the cause of these cancellations were clearly beyond the airlines control. Other competing transport providers such as coaches and ferries are not obliged under EU 261 to meet the cost of care during force majeure events. EU 261 needs to be amended to include a force majeure clause to relieve EU airlines of the “duty to care” obligations in such cases.     
The EU 261 legislation is also disproportionate as there is no cap on either the quantum or the period that air passengers can claim for.  This discriminates against airlines because coaches and ferries have their liability limited to the ticket price paid which caps their exposure. The airlines’ liability to compensation and right to care reimbursements should also be limited to the ticket price paid.   This would restore proportionality to the regulation since air passengers who have chosen to pay lower fares, and have benefited from significant savings, cannot and should not expect to receive unlimited compensation or reimbursements.    
Proposed €500m Dividend.
In December 2009 we ended our discussions for a 200 new Boeing aircraft order. Since we don’t anticipate a new deal with Boeing for the foreseeable future, our gross capex will fall substantially over the next 3 years. We expect to generate up to €1bn in surplus cash by the end of FY13. We now propose to return €500m of this cash in a one off dividend in October 2010 subject to shareholder approval at our September AGM. We also anticipate that there may be a further €500m (absent any new aircraft orders or other capex) available for return to shareholders either via share buy backs or another one off dividend by the end of FY13. This €500m dividend if approved in September will bring to €846m the amount of funds returned to shareholders by Ryanair in share buy backs and dividends over the past 3 years.   
Outlook.
We expect to grow traffic in FY11 by 11% to 73.5m (subject to volcanic ash disruptions). Fuel costs will increase by €300m. However, subject to no further air space closures and an early return to normal bookings, we expect airfares (which fell 13% last year) to rise by between 5% to 10% due to the positive impact of our new routes and bases. Some of these, such as Faro and Malaga, are already producing higher fares during the summer although they will lead to a 10% increase in sector length. Q1 will be adversely impacted by weaker yields in May and June due to the volcanic ash disruptions, and the inclusion of part of Easter revenues in the prior period, as a result Q1 Net Profits are expected to be slightly lower than last year.    Overall we expect costs per passenger to rise by 4% in 2010/11 (sector length adjusted they will fall by 6%). If as we expect, higher yields offset increased fuel and other operating costs, then profits (excluding exceptional costs from the recent volcanic ash disruptions) for the coming year should rise by between 10% to 15% to a range of approx. €350m to €375m”.

Source: Air Transport News